Association of Agrometeorologists

Trends and variability in northeast monsoon rainfall over Kerala

K.N. KRISHNAKUMAR and G.S.L.H.V. PRASADA RAO

Monthly rainfall over Kerala state showed an increasing tendency during October and November with a decrease in December. Such trend was more evident since 1961 onwards. Overall, over Kerala State, there was an increase of 96.7 mm in northeast monsoon rainfall over a period of time, indicating an increase of 20.1 per cent against the normal rainfall of 481.5 mm and significant at 5 per cent level. Rainfall during December was highly variable and undependable, which is of great concern in plantation crop production of the State of Kerala. As a whole, 34.0 per cent (46 years out of 135) of the years recorded either excess or deficit rainfall. The monthly rainfall range as well as its variability was less during excess rainfall years when compared to that of deficit rainfall years. The study also revealed that El Nino/La Nina events had weak teleconnection with excess/deficit northeast monsoon rainfall over Kerala.

Northeast monsoon, trends, coefficient of variation