Association of Agrometeorologists

Yield potential of world wheat based on ARIMA model under global warming

Cai Cheng-Zhi*, Cao Wen-Fang, Zeng Xiao-Shan, Zuo Jin, Xiao Dan, Liao Cong-Jian and Kanwal Waqar

As the most important food crop across the world, with continuous increase in world population and steady declining farmlands, wheat has been attracting academic attention for improving its yield or potential in the future particularly under global warming. Therefore, analyzing the yield or potential of wheat at global level relevant to greenhouse gas effect is of great significance to direct future production of wheat in the world. However up to now, there are relatively few reports on potential yield of world wheat projected using ‘time series’ approach like ARIMA (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Thus in this paper, the crop potential yield of world wheat during 2019 to 2028 is projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Our results show that during 2019 to 2028, the average yields of world wheat are projected to increase from 3569 to 4257 kg ha-1 while top yields of world wheat from 9852 to 11246 kg ha-1. Annual global mean temperatures are projected to increase from 15.05 to 15.31°C. Global warming exerts positive effect on average yield of world wheat while negative effect on the top yield in 1961 to 2018 and 2028. Our study concluded that for world wheat production in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be mainly dependent on the advantage of highyield countries as the yield is still in low place before the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend affected partly by greenhouse gas effect.

World wheat; yield potential; ARIMA model; global warming.