Association of Agrometeorologists

The application of generalized additive models (GAMs) for assessing the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD with monsoon rainfall variability over Krishna river basin, India

MALLAPPA J. MADOLLI, UMESH MADOLLI, HUMA KOUSAR SANGRESKOP and GOUDA P.A.

The present study examines the teleconnection of ENSO andIOD with monsoon rainfall (MN) and low, moderate and heavy rainfall events (LREs, MREs and HREs) over the Krishna river basin, using generalized additive models (GAMs) with suitable distribution. The outputs of GAMs indicate that, Poisson distribution is superior to the other distributions in assessing the teleconnection of ENSO-MN-IOD in the study area. Further, study resultsshowed that ENSO and IOD has significant (p < 0.001) non-linear responses to theLREs, MREs,HREs and MN. The influence of IOD on MN, LREs, MREs and HREs found positive on some parts, while negative on the other parts of the study area (i.e. heterogeneous in nature). While, ENSO has consistent negative influence on MN, LREs, MREs and HREsin the study area. Furthermore, La Niña and El Niño had positive and negative influenceon the MN, LREs, MREs and HREs respectively. The study outcomes will help the hydro-meteorologist and water related policy makers in modeling the impact of monsoon rainfall system on water, agriculture and allied sectors.

Monsoon rainfall, generalized additive models (GAMs), ENSO, IOD.