Association of Agrometeorologists

Probability analysis of rainfall for Udhagamandalam

D.C. SAHOO, M. MADHU and R. MOHANRAJ

Daily rainfall data of 43 years (1960-2002) of Udhagamandalam were used for annual, seasonal and monthly analysis at different probability levels to obtain the rainfall distribution pattern. At 80 per cent probability level, the rainfall available in the first (May to August) and second (September to November) season are more than the water requirement of the crops which are grown in this region. In the third season (December to April) the rainfall availability is not enough to support any crop without irrigation. Annual maximum daily rainfall was estimated at different return period which will be useful for design of any water harvesting and soil conservation structures. The annual one day maximum rainfall at 50 and 100 years return period was found to be 238.8 and 293.6 mm, respectively. The depth-duration-frequency relationship was developed for duration of 1 to 6 days maximum rainfall for different frequency.

Probability analysis; frequency analysis,Weibull’s formula, return period, probability density function, Depth-duration-frequency relationship