Association of Agrometeorologists

Stochastic modelling of relative humidity at Banswara

S. R. BHAKAR, RAJ VIR SINGH, NEERAJ CHHAJED and ANIL KUMAR BANSAL

Study was conducted to develop stochastic model for monthly minimum and maximum relative humidity using 12 years (1992-2003) data of Banswara. The performed statistical test indicates that the series of monthly minimum and maximum relative humidity data are trend free. Their periodic components can be presented satisfactorily by the second harmonics. The stochastic components of both monthly minimum and maximum relative humidity follow second order Markov model. Validation of generated was made with measured series. A high correlation coefficient of 0.9980 and 0.9976 for mean monthly minimum and maximum relative humidity respectively was observed. The correlation was tested by t-test and found to be highly significant at 1 per cent level. The standard error is quite low. The regression equation was very close to 1:1 line. Therefore, the developed model could be used for future prediction of mean monthly minimum and maximum relative humidity, at Banswara.

Stochastic, auto correlation function, auto regression, relative humidity.